Model Performance
What Fantasy Hockey Intel predicted, when the forecast was recorded, and what happened afterward. Published outcomes include misses, incomplete samples and unresolved calls.
Data sourcesActual scoring and games played, plus observed deployment: NHL.com. Advanced shot-process and expected-goal inputs: MoneyPuck. Fantasy Hockey Intel forecasts, Expected P/G and discovery signals are model outputs, not statistics published by either source.
Today’s Radar · selection analysis
The published shortlist, its repeated appearances and the evidence behind each selection.
Snapshot 2026-10-25 16:29:29
America/New_York.
A first recorded discovery is not necessarily a newly emerging signal. Expected P/G changes below use explicit comparison dates, not an assumed 24-hour window.
| Player / selection evidence | Discovery | Observed Radar days · 7 / 30 | Expected P/G · now | Change since first discovery | Change since previous Radar day |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kirill Kaprizov EARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · automaticEarly season · xP/G +0.71 vs baseline Expected P/G materially above prior baseline · Selection baseline 1.24 · Δ +0.71 Actual P/G 1.58 · Production gap -0.36 | Returning2026-10-20 05:51:41 | 4 / 4 | 1.95 | +0.31 | +0.09 2026-10-24 Driver +1 · Deployment -1 Same signal label |
| Viktor Arvidsson SHORT-TERM OPPORTUNITY · EARLY · automaticL2 → L1 · EV share 30% → 36% · 1 valid recent game(s) · observed 2026-10-24. May be temporary; verify next lineup. Observed top-six promotion with increased EV usage · Selection baseline 0.49 · Δ +0.50 Actual P/G 0.73 · Production gap -0.26 L2 → L1 · Early · last 1 games | Returning2026-10-18 07:54:29 | 2 / 2 | 0.99 | +0.08 | -0.03 2026-10-23 Driver -3 · Deployment -1 Signal label changed |
| Joel Farabee EARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · editorialEarly season · xP/G +0.49 vs baseline Expected P/G materially above prior baseline · Selection baseline 0.46 · Δ +0.49 Actual P/G 0.90 · Production gap -0.05 | Returning2026-10-18 01:38:01 | 2 / 2 | 0.95 | +0.12 | +0.03 2026-10-24 Driver -1 · Deployment 0 Same signal label |
| Tommy Novak ROLE OPPORTUNITY · CONFIRMED · editorialPP2 → PP1 · PP share 30% → 62% · 3 valid recent game(s) · observed 2026-10-24. May be temporary; verify next lineup. Observed power-play promotion · Selection baseline 0.53 · Δ +0.05 Actual P/G 0.67 · Production gap +0.09 PP2 → PP1 · Confirmed · last 3 games / L3 → L1 · Early · last 3 games | Returning2026-10-23 10:27:34 | 3 / 3 | 0.58 | -0.01 | -0.01 2026-10-24 Driver -9 · Deployment +1 Signal label changed |
Last 7 calendar days
5 days observed · 16 unique players · 29 player-days
Repeat share: 45%
Last 30 calendar days
5 days observed · 16 unique players · 29 player-days
Repeat share: 45%
Appearance tracking starts prospectively with this update. Counts cover saved observations only; historical coverage and full-day uptime are not implied. Multiple builds on one day count once per player and preserve that day’s first observation. Repeat share counts appearances beyond each player’s first observed day within the window. This measures repetition, not predictive accuracy.
Radar Discoveries
Players frozen the first time they appear on Today's Radar. Later production is measured from that date forward.
Prospective tracking onlyRecords begin with the first successfully saved Home discovery. Earlier Radar appearances cannot be reconstructed as genuine advance predictions. Editorial pins are identified separately. Repeat appearances do not overwrite the original capture.
First recorded Radar discovery: 2026-10-14 11:02:40. This date does not guarantee uninterrupted capture coverage.
| Player / discovery | Captured | At capture | Games since | P/G since | Current xP/G | Tracking |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charle-Edouard D'AstousROLE OPPORTUNITY · CONFIRMED · Editorial pick | 2026-10-24 | 0.39 xP/G8 GP · Driver 75 / Deployment 58PP2 → PP1 · Confirmed · last 3 gamesPP: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (1/3) | 2 | 1.50 | 0.48 | Tracking |
| Tommy NovakROLE OPPORTUNITY · EMERGING · Editorial pick | 2026-10-23 | 0.59 xP/G11 GP · Driver 74 / Deployment 65PP2 → PP1 · Emerging · last 3 games / L2 → L1 · Early · last 3 gamesPP: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (1/3) · EV: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (1/3) | 1 | 0.00 | 0.58 | Tracking |
| Sam DickinsonEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-23 | 0.78 xP/G9 GP · Driver 56 / Deployment 43 | 1 | 0.00 | 0.36 | Tracking |
| Philip BrobergROLE OPPORTUNITY · CONFIRMED · Model-selected | 2026-10-23 | 0.45 xP/G9 GP · Driver 93 / Deployment 80NO_PP → PP1 · Confirmed · last 3 games / D3 → D2 · Confirmed · last 3 gamesPP: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (1/3) · EV: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (1/3) | 2 | 0.00 | 0.41 | Tracking |
| Jack QuinnEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-22 | 1.11 xP/G10 GP · Driver 90 / Deployment 92L3 → L2 · Early · last 3 gamesEV: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (1/3) | 1 | 1.00 | 1.01 | Tracking |
| Jaden SchwartzROLE OPPORTUNITY · CONFIRMED · Model-selected | 2026-10-22 | 0.52 xP/G10 GP · Driver 54 / Deployment 61PP1_ROTATION → PP1 · Confirmed · last 3 gamesPP: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (1/3) | 1 | 1.00 | 0.51 | Tracking |
| Matt BoldyEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-22 | 1.39 xP/G10 GP · Driver 98 / Deployment 94 | 2 | 0.50 | 1.38 | Tracking |
| Simon HolmstromROLE OPPORTUNITY · EMERGING · Model-selected | 2026-10-21 | 0.54 xP/G9 GP · Driver 25 / Deployment 65PP2 → PP1 · Emerging · last 3 games / L4 → L2 · Emerging · last 3 gamesPP: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (1/3) · EV: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (1/3) | 1 | 0.00 | 0.57 | Tracking |
| Macklin CelebriniEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-21 | 1.62 xP/G8 GP · Driver 84 / Deployment 98 | 2 | 0.50 | 1.47 | Tracking |
| Kirill KaprizovEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-20 | 1.64 xP/G9 GP · Driver 81 / Deployment 94 | 3 | 1.33 | 1.95 | Tracking |
| Zach BensonEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Editorial pick | 2026-10-18 | 0.77 xP/G9 GP · Driver 95 / Deployment 87L2 → L1 · Emerging · last 3 gamesEV: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (2/3) | 2 | 0.50 | 0.79 | Tracking |
| Viktor ArvidssonEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-18 | 0.91 xP/G8 GP · Driver 63 / Deployment 84L2 → L1 · Early · last 3 gamesL1 observed in 1/3 latest valid follow-up games | 3 | 1.00 | 0.99 | Tracking |
| Erik GustafssonEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-18 | 0.88 xP/G4 GP · Driver 15 / Deployment 67 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.39 | Tracking |
| Joel FarabeeEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-18 | 0.83 xP/G7 GP · Driver 69 / Deployment 68L2 → L1 · Early · last 3 gamesEV: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (2/3) | 3 | 1.67 | 0.95 | Tracking |
| Seth JonesEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-17 | 0.97 xP/G8 GP · Driver 63 / Deployment 99D3 → D2 · Early · last 3 gamesEV: awaiting 3 valid follow-up games (2/3) | 3 | 0.67 | 0.88 | Tracking |
| Cole PerfettiEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-16 | 0.89 xP/G7 GP · Driver 86 / Deployment 81 | 3 | 0.33 | 0.86 | Tracking |
| Alexis LafrenièreEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-16 | 1.00 xP/G9 GP · Driver 70 / Deployment 88 | 4 | 1.00 | 1.05 | Tracking |
| Matthew TkachukEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-16 | 1.50 xP/G7 GP · Driver 91 / Deployment 97 | 4 | 1.25 | 1.37 | Tracking |
| Vasily PodkolzinEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-14 | 0.79 xP/G6 GP · Driver 76 / Deployment 79 | 5 | 0.60 | 0.78 | Tracking |
| Leo CarlssonEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-14 | 1.10 xP/G6 GP · Driver 78 / Deployment 94 | 5 | 0.80 | 1.10 | Tracking |
| Andrei SvechnikovEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-14 | 1.23 xP/G8 GP · Driver 96 / Deployment 93 | 5 | 0.20 | 0.99 | Tracking |
| Jackson BlakeEARLY UPSIDE SIGNAL · Model-selected | 2026-10-14 | 1.06 xP/G8 GP · Driver 99 / Deployment 93 | 5 | 1.00 | 1.10 | Tracking |
P/G since discovery = points earned after the recorded snapshot ÷ games played after it. This is descriptive follow-up, not proof of predictive skill: attribution and a suitable comparison group will be needed to measure true discovery performance.