Premium beta · NHL-only model

Goalie Intel

Compare the value of a possible start, its probability and the role behind season value.

Experimental model estimates · not yet backtested or probability-calibrated. Start probabilities, simulated fantasy outcomes and rankings are estimates. FHI forecasts, not confirmed starts. Underlying goalie data: MoneyPuck.com where available; labelled NHL-based fallbacks otherwise.
Scoring rules

Wins +3 · Saves +0.2 · Goals Against -1 · Shutouts +3 · points. Category leagues are not modelled.

Calculated

This stored forecast is older than 12 hours or has an invalid timestamp. Refresh before using it for a current decision.

Match times and dates use your browser’s timezone; UTC is the fallback. Fantasy values and uncertainty are available under each match.

How to read

Compare the chance of playing first, then the value of the matchup. All percentages are model estimates, not confirmed starts.

Start chance
Estimated chance of starting, based on role, rotation, rest and available injury information.
Shots against
Expected shots on goal faced if starting. More shots offer save opportunities and more exposure to goals against.
Team win chance
The team's chance of winning if this goalie starts. Fantasy scoring uses the separate chance of a credited goalie win.
Quality start chance
Chance of finishing above .900 SV% if starting. Exactly .900 does not qualify.

Open Fantasy values & forecast details for expected saves, FP if starting and expected contribution: start chance × FP if starting. For example, 60% × 7 FP = 4.2 expected FP. Values follow your selected scoring profile.

Check availability and back-to-back badges. Missing injury reports do not confirm fitness. Match times and the date filter use your browser's local timezone. Open a goalie's name for history and analysis.

Start chance is an FHI forecast. Shots on goal faced, team win and quality-start chances apply if starting.

FLAatCHI

Your date Oct 25, 2026
UTC · local time loads in your browser
Possible goalieStart chanceShots againstTeam win chanceQuality start chance
FLA
Akira Schmid
Availability unverified 		69% 25.2 54% 51%
Cooper Black
Availability unverified 		26% 24.0 56% 48%
Jacob Markstrom
Injured reserve 		5% 24.3 55% 48%
CHI
Spencer Knight
Availability unverified 		74% 26.7 51% 56%
Arvid Soderblom
Availability unverified 		26% 27.3 50% 49%
Fantasy values & forecast details

Akira Schmid · FLA

FP if starting
3.78
Expected contribution
2.61Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
22.410–39 simulated band
FP if-start band
-1–9.18
Start-chance band
49–89%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-21

  • Opponent CHI · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 22.44 · GA 2.76
  • Team win chance 54% · model, not odds
  • 4 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.884 · 4 observed starts · season start share 69%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Cooper Black · FLA

FP if starting
3.51
Expected contribution
0.93Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
21.29–35 simulated band
FP if-start band
-1.58–9
Start-chance band
7–46%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-22

  • Opponent CHI · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 21.2 · GA 2.8
  • Team win chance 56% · model, not odds
  • 3 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.89 · 1 observed starts · season start share 26%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 1 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Jacob Markstrom · FLA

FP if starting
3.47
Expected contribution
0.16Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
21.611–34 simulated band
FP if-start band
-1–8
Start-chance band
0–16%Heuristic uncertainty
Injured reserveUpper BodyReported return estimate: 2026-11-04BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC

Last observed appearance 2026-10-17

  • Opponent CHI · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 21.59 · GA 2.73
  • Team win chance 55% · model, not odds
  • 8 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.893 · 6 observed starts · season start share 5%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Spencer Knight · CHI

FP if starting
4.13
Expected contribution
3.05Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
24.110–39 simulated band
FP if-start band
-0.2–9.2
Start-chance band
54–93%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-23

  • Opponent FLA · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 24.1 · GA 2.6
  • Team win chance 51% · model, not odds
  • 2 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.89 · 8 observed starts · season start share 74%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Arvid Soderblom · CHI

FP if starting
3.61
Expected contribution
0.95Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
24.310–42 simulated band
FP if-start band
-1.2–8.6
Start-chance band
7–46%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-08

  • Opponent FLA · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 24.25 · GA 3.01
  • Team win chance 50% · model, not odds
  • 17 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.882 · 2 observed starts · season start share 26%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

NYIatDAL

Your date Oct 25, 2026
UTC · local time loads in your browser
Possible goalieStart chanceShots againstTeam win chanceQuality start chance
NYI
Ilya Sorokin
Availability unverified 		66% 26.7 55% 58%
Semyon Varlamov
Availability unverified 		34% 26.2 50% 52%
DAL
Jake Oettinger
Availability unverified 		74% 26.3 57% 59%
Casey DeSmith
Availability unverified 		26% 25.5 59% 59%
Fantasy values & forecast details

Ilya Sorokin · NYI

FP if starting
4.52
Expected contribution
2.98Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
24.211–40 simulated band
FP if-start band
-0.4–9.4
Start-chance band
45–87%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-20

  • Opponent DAL · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 24.22 · GA 2.47
  • Team win chance 55% · model, not odds
  • 5 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.908 · 7 observed starts · season start share 66%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Semyon Varlamov · NYI

FP if starting
3.82
Expected contribution
1.30Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
23.510–40 simulated band
FP if-start band
-1–9.18
Start-chance band
13–55%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-22

  • Opponent DAL · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 23.46 · GA 2.77
  • Team win chance 50% · model, not odds
  • 3 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.893 · 3 observed starts · season start share 34%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 2 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Jake Oettinger · DAL

FP if starting
4.53
Expected contribution
3.34Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
24.011–41 simulated band
FP if-start band
-0.2–9.4
Start-chance band
54–93%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-22

  • Opponent NYI · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 23.95 · GA 2.35
  • Team win chance 57% · model, not odds
  • 3 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.909 · 8 observed starts · season start share 74%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Casey DeSmith · DAL

FP if starting
4.68
Expected contribution
1.23Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
23.210–40 simulated band
FP if-start band
-0.4–9.6
Start-chance band
7–46%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-14

  • Opponent NYI · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 23.2 · GA 2.29
  • Team win chance 59% · model, not odds
  • 11 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.897 · 2 observed starts · season start share 26%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

MTLatWPG

Your date Oct 25, 2026
UTC · local time loads in your browser
Possible goalieStart chanceShots againstTeam win chanceQuality start chance
MTL
Jacob Fowler
Availability unverified 		47% 26.9 56% 53%
Jakub Dobes
Availability unverified 		47% 26.4 51% 49%
Samuel Montembeault
Availability unverified 		7% 26.0 53% 49%
WPG
Stuart Skinner
Availability unverified 		62% 27.7 54% 55%
Clay Stevenson
Availability unverified 		31% 26.1 56% 54%
Nico Daws
Availability unverified 		7% 27.7 53% 54%
Fantasy values & forecast details

Jacob Fowler · MTL

FP if starting
4.11
Expected contribution
1.91Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
24.111–41 simulated band
FP if-start band
-0.8–9.2
Start-chance band
25–68%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-23

  • Opponent WPG · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 24.11 · GA 2.78
  • Team win chance 56% · model, not odds
  • 2 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.897 · 5 observed starts · season start share 47%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 2 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Jakub Dobes · MTL

FP if starting
3.57
Expected contribution
1.66Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
23.511–40 simulated band
FP if-start band
-1–8.6
Start-chance band
25–68%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-20

  • Opponent WPG · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 23.46 · GA 2.93
  • Team win chance 51% · model, not odds
  • 5 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.877 · 5 observed starts · season start share 47%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Samuel Montembeault · MTL

FP if starting
3.74
Expected contribution
0.26Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
23.210–40 simulated band
FP if-start band
-1–9.18
Start-chance band
0–20%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Goalie rest unknown

  • Opponent WPG · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 23.16 · GA 2.86
  • Team win chance 53% · model, not odds
  • Rest unknown
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.892 · 0 observed starts · season start share 7%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 2 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Stuart Skinner · WPG

FP if starting
4.19
Expected contribution
2.61Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
25.011–42 simulated band
FP if-start band
-0.4–9.4
Start-chance band
41–83%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-22

  • Opponent MTL · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 24.96 · GA 2.76
  • Team win chance 54% · model, not odds
  • 3 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.9 · 7 observed starts · season start share 62%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Clay Stevenson · WPG

FP if starting
4.09
Expected contribution
1.26Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
23.410–39 simulated band
FP if-start band
-0.58–9.18
Start-chance band
10–51%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-17

  • Opponent MTL · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 23.43 · GA 2.64
  • Team win chance 56% · model, not odds
  • 8 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.892 · 3 observed starts · season start share 31%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Nico Daws · WPG

FP if starting
4.02
Expected contribution
0.28Start chance × FP if starting
Match value · relative
Building referenceThe 0–10 percentile is hidden until at least 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are stored.
Saves if starting
24.810–41 simulated band
FP if-start band
-0.78–8.98
Start-chance band
0–20%Heuristic uncertainty
Availability unverified

Last observed appearance 2026-10-22

  • Opponent MTL · shot/opponent environment model
  • Expected saves 24.82 · GA 2.85
  • Team win chance 53% · model, not odds
  • 3 calendar day(s) since observed appearance
  • Start share informed by observed season and recent starts
  • Model SV% 0.887 · 4 observed starts · season start share 7%
  • MoneyPuck GSAx · 3 season(s), weighted + 1200-minute neutral prior

High · limited sample / role / availability evidence

Quality start chance is simulated from goalie performance and the opponent. Win support is modelled team win chance, not odds or a confirmed start. Missing injury reports do not establish fitness.

Method, calibration and sources

Smoothed percentile of conditional P/start against prior 28 days of forecast references; initial cohort bootstrap when history is missing. Reference: 1716 values. Building reference: numerical 0–10 values are hidden until 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are available. The 0–10 value is conditional on starting and is not comparable across scoring profiles, seasons or model versions.

NHL observations fetched 2026-10-25 18:24:12 · schedule snapshot 2026-10-25 18:21:45. No personal Fantrax scoring integration or confirmed-starter feed is connected.

A quality start is an observed start with SV% strictly above .900. Exactly .900 does not qualify. Relief and zero-shot observations are excluded from observed QS%. Match QS chance uses the same simulated shot/goal outcomes as win and fantasy forecasts.

Expected contribution = model start probability × simulated conditional profile points. Saves, goals against, team scoring, wins and shutouts share each simulated scoreline. Scoring weights apply to every draw. Shown intervals are 10th–90th percentile simulation outcomes, not calibrated confidence guarantees. Start-probability ranges are heuristic uncertainty bands.

Season remaining xP sums game-level contributions. xP/G divides by the same future team-game count. Full season total adds already earned points only when the full remaining schedule is available. Missing future games are not silently filled with neutral opponents. Relief appearances count in observed points, not actual P/start.

Start share blends smoothed current-team season starts (65%) and recent ten-team-game starts (35%). Observed rest, availability and forecast back-to-back rotation adjust probabilities separately from conditional match value. Single-goalie rosters leave 15% unallocated. Current availability is an assumption for future role, not a recovery-date forecast.

When available, MoneyPuck GSAx blends the current and two preceding seasons (weights 1 / 0.65 / 0.35) with 1200 neutral prior minutes. Team xGA feeds the goal environment. Missing GSAx uses labelled NHL save-performance/league priors, with optional fresh Edge. Team rates use 15 prior games. Missing reports never establish medical clearance; previous-day team schedule and a goalie's own observed usage remain separate.

Trend uses the intersection of future game IDs in two immutable snapshots with the same season, model and scoring weights. The displayed comparable period and delta exclude actual points and games that have already elapsed. The stable threshold is max(0.05 points, 3% of prior comparable xP/G, twice the aggregate Monte Carlo sampling error). This beta threshold is not empirically calibrated yet.

Observed inputs: canonical NHL roster, NHL Stats game reports, NHL season schedules/Live, availability records, optional Edge and attributed MoneyPuck CSV data. Model outputs: start probability, outcome bands, conditional points, win support, contribution and season projection. No confirmed starters, bookmaker odds or personal Fantrax integration.