Goalie Intel
Compare the value of a possible start, its probability and the role behind season value.
Scoring rules
Goalie database
Search and sort the available goalie forecasts under the selected scoring profile. xP/G is expected fantasy points per future team game, including projected start share.
| Goalie | xP/G | Start share | FP/start | QS · adjusted | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Wallstedt · MINAvailability unverified | 3.55 | 84% | 4.21 | 57% | → Stable +0.09 |
| Jake Allen · NJDAvailability unverified | 3.43 | 80% | 4.30 | 50% | → Stable +0.05 |
| Dylan Garand · NYRAvailability unverified | 3.35 | 85% | 3.93 | 52% | ↓ Down -0.15 |
| Tristan Jarry · EDMAvailability unverified | 3.08 | 79% | 3.91 | 48% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Jeremy Swayman · BOSAvailability unverified | 3.01 | 68% | 4.43 | 54% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Jake Oettinger · DALAvailability unverified | 2.96 | 73% | 4.07 | 52% | → Stable -0.02 |
| Mackenzie Blackwood · COLAvailability unverified | 2.92 | 67% | 4.36 | 49% | → Stable +0.02 |
| Andrei Vasilevskiy · TBLAvailability unverified | 2.85 | 67% | 4.28 | 45% | → Stable -0.05 |
| Karel Vejmelka · UTAAvailability unverified | 2.85 | 71% | 4.01 | 50% | → Stable -0.07 |
| Juuse Saros · NSHAvailability unverified | 2.79 | 79% | 3.53 | 52% | → Stable -0.03 |
| Ilya Sorokin · NYIAvailability unverified | 2.77 | 65% | 4.26 | 54% | → Stable -0.02 |
| John Gibson · DETAvailability unverified | 2.74 | 74% | 3.71 | 41% | ↓ Down -0.49 |
| Spencer Knight · CHIAvailability unverified | 2.69 | 73% | 3.71 | 41% | → Stable -0.03 |
| Joel Hofer · STLAvailability unverified | 2.67 | 67% | 4.00 | 45% | → Stable +0.00 |
| Akira Schmid · FLAAvailability unverified | 2.60 | 68% | 3.83 | 40% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Charlie Lindgren · WSHAvailability unverified | 2.54 | 74% | 3.43 | 46% | → Stable +0.02 |
| Pyotr Kochetkov · CARAvailability unverified | 2.43 | 55% | 4.45 | 50% | → Stable +0.00 |
| Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen · BUFAvailability unverified | 2.41 | 67% | 3.58 | 38% | → Stable -0.03 |
| Stuart Skinner · WPGAvailability unverified | 2.34 | 62% | 3.79 | 54% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Darcy Kuemper · LAKAvailability unverified | 2.32 | 62% | 3.72 | 52% | → Stable -0.03 |
| Lukas Dostal · ANAAvailability unverified | 2.23 | 67% | 3.34 | 45% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Carter Hart · VGKAvailability unverified | 2.19 | 59% | 3.72 | 49% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Sergei Bobrovsky · TORAvailability unverified | 2.17 | 59% | 3.69 | 45% | ↓ Down -0.14 |
| Jet Greaves · CBJAvailability unverified | 2.11 | 54% | 3.90 | 42% | → Stable +0.00 |
| Devin Cooley · CGYAvailability unverified | 2.08 | 50% | 4.16 | 50% | → Stable +0.05 |
| Arturs Silovs · PITAvailability unverified | 2.04 | 61% | 3.34 | 49% | → Stable +0.05 |
| Samuel Ersson · OTTAvailability unverified | 1.95 | 62% | 3.14 | 42% | → Stable +0.01 |
| Jacob Fowler · MTLAvailability unverified | 1.92 | 46% | 4.14 | 46% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Philipp Grubauer · SEAAvailability unverified | 1.85 | 50% | 3.70 | 52% | → Stable -0.03 |
| Brandon Bussi · CARAvailability unverified | 1.83 | 45% | 4.04 | 48% | → Stable +0.00 |
| Joseph Woll · PHIAvailability unverified | 1.83 | 52% | 3.51 | 54% | → Stable -0.02 |
| Jakub Dobes · MTLAvailability unverified | 1.79 | 46% | 3.86 | 42% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Dan Vladar · PHIAvailability unverified | 1.79 | 48% | 3.72 | 52% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Joey Daccord · SEAAvailability unverified | 1.77 | 50% | 3.55 | 48% | → Stable -0.04 |
| Dustin Wolf · CGYAvailability unverified | 1.76 | 50% | 3.51 | 42% | → Stable +0.01 |
| Anthony Stolarz · TORAvailability unverified | 1.62 | 41% | 3.92 | 50% | ↑ Up +0.23 |
| Yaroslav Askarov · SJSAvailability unverified | 1.62 | 54% | 2.99 | 43% | ↓ Down -0.21 |
| Adin Hill · VGKAvailability unverified | 1.59 | 41% | 3.84 | 46% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Alex Nedeljkovic · SJSAvailability unverified | 1.54 | 46% | 3.36 | 50% | ↑ Up +0.12 |
| Cam Talbot · CBJAvailability unverified | 1.54 | 46% | 3.35 | 53% | → Stable +0.00 |
| Scott Wedgewood · COLAvailability unverified | 1.54 | 33% | 4.64 | 50% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Kevin Lankinen · VANAvailability unverified | 1.48 | 54% | 2.73 | 36% | → Stable +0.01 |
| Anton Forsberg · LAKAvailability unverified | 1.45 | 38% | 3.85 | 50% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Leevi Meriläinen · VANAvailability unverified | 1.44 | 45% | 3.16 | 54% | → Stable +0.00 |
| Dennis Hildeby · TBLAvailability unverified | 1.38 | 33% | 4.14 | 46% | ↓ Down -0.06 |
| Michael DiPietro · BOSAvailability unverified | 1.38 | 32% | 4.30 | 50% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Semyon Varlamov · NYIAvailability unverified | 1.36 | 35% | 3.89 | 46% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Sergei Murashov · PITAvailability unverified | 1.32 | 39% | 3.37 | 48% | → Stable +0.02 |
| Casey DeSmith · DALAvailability unverified | 1.17 | 27% | 4.31 | 53% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Colten Ellis · BUFAvailability unverified | 1.17 | 32% | 3.62 | 42% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Jordan Binnington · STLAvailability unverified | 1.16 | 33% | 3.48 | 42% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Clay Stevenson · WPGAvailability unverified | 1.14 | 31% | 3.65 | 50% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Jonas Johansson · OTTAvailability unverified | 1.13 | 31% | 3.66 | 46% | → Stable +0.00 |
| Sebastian Cossa · UTAAvailability unverified | 1.11 | 29% | 3.82 | 46% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Ville Husso · ANAAvailability unverified | 1.07 | 33% | 3.24 | 46% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Cooper Black · FLAAvailability unverified | 1.03 | 27% | 3.77 | 46% | → Stable +0.00 |
| Arvid Soderblom · CHIAvailability unverified | 0.92 | 27% | 3.38 | 44% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Justus Annunen · NSHAvailability unverified | 0.78 | 21% | 3.68 | 46% | → Stable -0.02 |
| Mitchell Gibson · WSHAvailability unverified | 0.69 | 18% | 3.88 | — | → Stable 0.00 |
| Daniil Tarasov · DETDay-to-dayUndisclosedReported return estimate: 2026-10-26BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.66 | 18% | 3.68 | 50% | ↑ Up +0.58 |
| Calvin Pickard · MINAvailability unverified | 0.55 | 15% | 3.59 | 46% | → Stable +0.01 |
| Matt Tomkins · EDMAvailability unverified | 0.53 | 13% | 4.09 | — | ↓ Down -0.06 |
| Connor Hellebuyck · NJDAvailability unverified | 0.46 | 10% | 4.55 | — | → Stable +0.01 |
| Rémi Poirier · NJDAvailability unverified | 0.39 | 10% | 3.87 | — | → Stable 0.00 |
| Logan Thompson · WSHInjured reserveLower BodyReported return estimate: 2026-10-28BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.34 | 8% | 4.13 | 50% | → Stable +0.00 |
| Michal Postava · DETAvailability unverified | 0.31 | 8% | 3.75 | — | ↓ Down -0.06 |
| Devon Levi · EDMInjured reserveUndisclosedReported return estimate: 2026-11-09BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.29 | 8% | 3.84 | 47% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Samuel Montembeault · MTLAvailability unverified | 0.28 | 7% | 3.97 | — | → Stable 0.00 |
| Linus Ullmark · OTTInjured reserveLower BodyReported return estimate: 2026-10-29BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.26 | 7% | 3.82 | 59% | → Stable +0.00 |
| Nico Daws · WPGAvailability unverified | 0.26 | 7% | 3.61 | 48% | → Stable +0.00 |
| James Reimer · NYRAvailability unverified | 0.24 | 6% | 4.01 | — | — Unknown |
| Spencer Martin · NYRAvailability unverified | 0.21 | 6% | 3.55 | — | ↓ Down -0.06 |
| Jacob Markstrom · FLAInjured reserveUpper BodyReported return estimate: 2026-11-04BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.17 | 5% | 3.59 | 45% | → Stable 0.00 |
| Igor Shesterkin · NYRInjured reserveKneeReported return estimate: 2027-09-15BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.12 | 3% | 4.47 | 54% | → Stable -0.01 |
| Frederik Andersen · EDMInjured reserveKneeReported return estimate: 2026-12-30BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.03 | 1% | 4.22 | — | → Stable 0.00 |
| Alex Lyon · BUFInjured reserveUpper BodyReported return estimate: 2026-10-31BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.01 | 0% | 3.80 | — | → Stable 0.00 |
| Filip Gustavsson · MINInjured reserveHipReported return estimate: 2026-11-19BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.01 | 0% | 3.91 | — | → Stable +0.00 |
| Thatcher Demko · VANInjured reserveHipReported return estimate: 2026-12-21BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.01 | 0% | 3.40 | — | → Stable 0.00 |
| Joonas Korpisalo · NYRInjured reserveLower BodyReported return estimate: 2026-11-09BBS · checked 2026-10-25 17:15:45 UTC | 0.01 | 0% | 3.81 | — | → Stable 0.00 |
Method, calibration and sources
Smoothed percentile of conditional P/start against prior 28 days of forecast references; initial cohort bootstrap when history is missing. Reference: 1716 values. Building reference: numerical 0–10 values are hidden until 7 reference days and 100 forecasts are available. The 0–10 value is conditional on starting and is not comparable across scoring profiles, seasons or model versions.
NHL observations fetched 2026-10-25 18:24:12 · schedule snapshot 2026-10-25 18:21:45. No personal Fantrax scoring integration or confirmed-starter feed is connected.
A quality start is an observed start with SV% strictly above .900. Exactly .900 does not qualify. Relief and zero-shot observations are excluded from observed QS%. Match QS chance uses the same simulated shot/goal outcomes as win and fantasy forecasts.
Expected contribution = model start probability × simulated conditional profile points. Saves, goals against, team scoring, wins and shutouts share each simulated scoreline. Scoring weights apply to every draw. Shown intervals are 10th–90th percentile simulation outcomes, not calibrated confidence guarantees. Start-probability ranges are heuristic uncertainty bands.
Season remaining xP sums game-level contributions. xP/G divides by the same future team-game count. Full season total adds already earned points only when the full remaining schedule is available. Missing future games are not silently filled with neutral opponents. Relief appearances count in observed points, not actual P/start.
Start share blends smoothed current-team season starts (65%) and recent ten-team-game starts (35%). Observed rest, availability and forecast back-to-back rotation adjust probabilities separately from conditional match value. Single-goalie rosters leave 15% unallocated. Current availability is an assumption for future role, not a recovery-date forecast.
When available, MoneyPuck GSAx blends the current and two preceding seasons (weights 1 / 0.65 / 0.35) with 1200 neutral prior minutes. Team xGA feeds the goal environment. Missing GSAx uses labelled NHL save-performance/league priors, with optional fresh Edge. Team rates use 15 prior games. Missing reports never establish medical clearance; previous-day team schedule and a goalie's own observed usage remain separate.
Trend uses the intersection of future game IDs in two immutable snapshots with the same season, model and scoring weights. The displayed comparable period and delta exclude actual points and games that have already elapsed. The stable threshold is max(0.05 points, 3% of prior comparable xP/G, twice the aggregate Monte Carlo sampling error). This beta threshold is not empirically calibrated yet.
Observed inputs: canonical NHL roster, NHL Stats game reports, NHL season schedules/Live, availability records, optional Edge and attributed MoneyPuck CSV data. Model outputs: start probability, outcome bands, conditional points, win support, contribution and season projection. No confirmed starters, bookmaker odds or personal Fantrax integration.