Nathan MacKinnon
Fantasy Hub Player Intelligence

Nathan MacKinnon

COL · C · Age 31
GP 11 · G-A-PTS 7-13-20
Limited sample STRONG OVERPERFORMANCE LOW confidence
Expected P/G 1.38 Limited sample · Rank appears after 20 GP
Current trajectory Early season 11 GP · 3Y baseline 1.59
Actual P/G 1.82 Limited sample
Deployment 97 #2 among F on team
Driver 100 #2 among F on team

Data sourcesOfficial scoring, games played, shots on goal, ice time and observed deployment: NHL.com. Advanced shot-process and expected-goal data: MoneyPuck. Fantasy Hockey Intel Expected P/G and signals are its own model outputs.

11 GP current season Process: 55% current Role: 100% current
How to read this player pageQuick guide

Start with Expected P/G and current production. Usage contains observed roles; Analysis contains process, trajectory and model context.

Expected P/G Estimated scoring rate from current performance, role and underlying indicators.
Driver How strongly the player is driving offensive creation relative to comparable forwards or defensemen.
Deployment How favorable the player’s role and usage are. Higher values generally mean stronger opportunity.
Actual Deployment Observed NHL usage from shifts + play-by-play: line or pair, power-play unit, time and usage share.
Model signals Fantasy Hub interpretations of meaningful changes in production, process, role or sustainability.
NHL Edge Context Skating, territory and shot-location context. Edge is supporting context and does not directly change Expected P/G or Current Value.
Confidence How much current evidence supports the model reading. Treat lower-confidence signals more cautiously.
Team context
Colorado Avalanche Balanced environment
Fantasy environment #13 of 32 NHL teams
Team xP/G #13 0.79 top-8 xP/G
Offensive environment Above Average EV OZ #11 · shot diff #11
Power-play environment Average PP OZ #18
Pace & activity Strong #8 NHL · 28.7 bursts/g · 66.6 km/g · 55.2 attempts/g

Balanced environment · above average offensive process · average power-play environment.

View COL team context →
Production × opportunity

Player Motion

Expected or Actual P/G against Deployment. The trail follows saved daily snapshots up to the latest date.

16 snapshots
Compare up to four skaters with saved model history.
Bubble size represents Offensive Driver percentile.
2026-10-25

Daily snapshots: Expected P/G is a model estimate; Actual P/G is observed season scoring at that date. Each trail connects saved dates; values between snapshots and reasons for changes are unknown. Driver and Deployment are percentiles within F/D. Bubble size shows Driver, independently of the horizontal axis.

FANTASY HOCKEY INTELShare this Player Motion chart

Show exact values for every date
Usage & Deployment
Overall usageSeason rate
TOI/G21:00
PP TOI/G4:04
SOG/G4.36
5v5 roleObserved role
L15v5 usage band

Artturi Lehkonen · Nathan MacKinnon · Martin Necas

Line time · last game
10:20
TOI · With this line · last game
74%
TOI · With this line · last 3
41%
TOI · With this line · season
49%
Trend
-8 percentage points ↓-8 pts ↓
Power playObserved PP role
PP1Power-play unit

Nazem Kadri · Jaden Schwartz · Nathan MacKinnon · T.J. Hughes · Cale Makar

PP share · last game
73%
PP share · last 3
77%
PP share · season
65%
First-unit starts · last 3
6 / 6
Trend
+12 percentage points ↑+12 pts ↑
SituationalLast 5
Vs empty net
63% · 1:25
Own goalie pulled
100% · 5:13

Derived from official NHL shift charts + play-by-play · Established · High confidence · 15 recent PP opportunities

Official NHL video

Recent highlights

Goals & assists · last 5 games
Production

2026–27 season

GP
11
G
7
A
13
PTS
20
P/G
1.82
SOG/G
4.36
TOI/G
21:00
PP TOI/G
4:04
Historical context · Observed NHL stats Season-over-Season

Actual 2025/26 production compared with 2026/27 so far. Expected P/G is the current FHI model estimate, not last season's result.

2025/26 Actual P/G1.5980 GP
2026/27 Actual P/G1.8211 GP
Current Expected P/G1.38FHI projection
2025/26 shots/GP: 4.38 TOI/GP: 22.3 min PP TOI/GP: 4.3 min 2025/26 ixG: 40.6 ixG/60: 1.37

Data sources2025/26 actual GP, G/A/PTS, shots on goal and total/power-play ice time: NHL.com season and power-play reports. Individual expected goals (xG), when available: MoneyPuck all-situations data. These observed results are separate from FHI’s saved historical Expected P/G baseline.

Performance

Process vs Deployment

0–100 · F/D percentile · sample-adjusted
Limited sample

The process-versus-Deployment profile is still sample-sensitive.

Process 100
Deployment 97
Offensive Driver Elite · limited sample
100
Shot Creation Elite · limited sample
98
Play Creation Elite · limited sample
100
Deployment Elite · limited sample
97
Median High-end Elite
Trajectory

Early season

Early season
3Y baseline 1.59 Historical P/G
2026–27 1.82 vs baseline +0.23
Expected P/G 1.38 vs baseline −0.21

Current-season production is still below the 20-game threshold; the historical baseline is shown without a strong trajectory call.

Intelligence

Model signals

MODEL

Elite Deployment strongly supports current fantasy value.

Deployment 97 is in the top range of the position group.

MODEL

Elite underlying offensive process supports the profile.

Offensive Driver 100 is in the top range of the position group.

MODEL

Production is running above expectation.

Actual P/G exceeds Expected P/G by 0.44.

MODEL

Sample size limits confidence in the current profile.

The model currently reports LOW confidence.

Current value

The current fantasy profile has both high-end process and high-end Deployment behind it. Expected P/G currently sits at 1.38.

Model details

Performance model
performance_v2_1_4

Scale
transition_ref_v2

Driver vs Deployment
3.2

Published
2026-10-25 17:49:50